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Vinny · The book
“One second. Counting the house money.”
“One second. Counting the house money.”
Not every half point on the spread is worth the same. In football, the ones around 3 and 7 are worth the most.
A key number is a final margin that games land on far more often than the margins around it. In football, 3 and 7 are the big ones, so a spread that crosses 3 or 7 changes the price of a side by more than a half point between -5 and -5.5. Basketball has softer thresholds, so a move there is judged more by its size, and hockey and baseball spreads are a fixed 1.5 that move in price, so the weight sits in the price and the total.
Key numbers? Never heard of them, and I have heard of everything. A half point is a half point, friend. Minus 2.5, minus 3, minus 3.5, same thing, who is counting?
Nobody is counting except me, and I count in my own favour. Slide your number half a point, charge you the same vig to ask, and you feel like you got a bargain. You got a different animal. Don't think about it, it spoils the mood.
I liked a favourite at -2.5 on Friday. Then I did what I always do and waited to see what happened to the line.
By Sunday it was -3. I took it anyway, because it is only half a point. The team won by exactly three. At -2.5 that is a win. At -3 it is my money back. Half a point was the whole difference between a win and a push, and I found out from a text from my brother that said "half a point, huh."
A key number is a margin the game lands on again and again. In football the clearest are 3 and 7, because a field goal and a touchdown are how points arrive. Over a long sample, more games finish by exactly 3 or exactly 7 than by most of the margins next to them.
That makes the half points around those numbers heavy. A move from -2.5 to -3 changes how often a side covers by more than a move from -5 to -5.5, so the price changed by more than the move looks like. The same is true across 7, and the same weight sits on the other side of the number for the underdog.
Basketball margins are spread wide, so no single number dominates and one point of spread is worth less than in football. Hockey is often decided by one goal and its spread is a fixed puck line that moves in price, so the weight sits in the total and in the price rather than in the spread. Where there is no sharp key number, judge a move by its size.
What a crossing tells you is that the market's estimate moved over a threshold. It does not tell you the side wins. A better number is a better price, and a bet at a better price still loses some of the time. Those losses count exactly as much as the wins. For information only, not betting advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
A key number is a final margin that happens more often than its neighbours. In football 3 and 7 stand out because a field goal is worth 3 and a touchdown with the extra point is worth 7.
Not as sharp ones. Basketball margins spread over a wide range, so no single number dominates, and hockey is often decided by one goal and its spread is a fixed puck line that moves in price, so the weight sits in the total and the price rather than the spread.
No. It means the price of the same side changed by more than the move looks like. A better number is a better price, not a win, and a bet at a good number can still lose.