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Vinny · The book
“One second. Counting the house money.”
“One second. Counting the house money.”
A big move means the market changed its mind. The useful question is why, and whether the old price is still there.
A spread move of a point or more means the market changed its estimate of the margin, because of news, money, or both. The size matters: a point in football is not a point in basketball. The move shows that something changed. It does not say why, and it does not say a side covers.
A point of movement? That is weather, kid. The number I printed when you woke up is the truth for the rest of time. Lines do not move. I just decide what you are looking at.
And when they do seem to move, it is out of kindness. I have never once moved a line for my own benefit. Ask anyone. Don't ask anyone.
Saturday the favourite was -3. Sunday it was -4.5. I looked at it and thought it was still a bargain, because the number in my head was yesterday's -3.
It was not a bargain. The injury report had changed, which I would have known if I had read it. I was comparing against a screenshot from the day before. They won by three, and I lost. The only person who got fooled was me, by my own screenshot.
A spread is the market's estimate of the margin. When it moves a point or more, that estimate changed. There are three common causes: news, such as a starter ruled out or the weather turning; money, meaning enough bets on one side that the book moves the price; and the book's own risk, meaning it is trimming a position it does not want.
Ask three things. Did anything change that you can name? Did other books move the same way at about the same time, or only one? Is the new number still better than your own estimate? A move that shows up everywhere at once looks more like information. A move at one book alone looks more like that book's own risk. These are clues, not proof.
By the time you see a move, the earlier price is gone. If you did not hold it, you are paying the new price, and the only question is whether the new price is good. Sometimes a move reverses. Sometimes it is right and the bet still loses. Both outcomes get written down the same way. For information only, not betting advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Usually because of news such as an injury or weather, because of money from bettors, or because the book is adjusting its own risk. From the outside the same move can come from any of them.
It depends on the sport. A point is large in football, where margins are narrow, and smaller in basketball, where margins range widely. Hockey and baseball spreads are a fixed 1.5 that move in price, so for them watch the price. Compare a move to what is normal for that sport.
Not by itself. The new price already includes the move. A side is a good bet only if your own estimate beats the current price, and even then it can lose.