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Vinny · The book
“One second. Counting the house money.”
“One second. Counting the house money.”
A total is the market's guess at the combined score. When it moves, the market expects a different game.
A total is the market's estimate of the combined score. When it moves, the market now expects more or fewer points, usually because of weather, a missing player, or pace. In low-scoring sports half a unit is a big move. A total moving down does not mean the under wins.
The total only moves when somebody scores, kid. Wind? Wind does not have a bet. Rain does not have a bet. My total is carved in stone before the anthem and not a minute earlier.
And everybody loves the over. Nobody pays to watch a defensive game. I have never once been sad about that.
Sunday morning the total was 44.5. By kickoff it was 41. I decided the book was panicking and I was smarter than the book.
I took the over at 41. It was windy. Final score 20 to 17, a total of 37. I now check the forecast the way other people check the lottery. Before the game, I mean. After the game I check it to feel bad.
A total is the market's estimate of the combined score. When it drops, the market expects fewer points. The usual reasons are weather, a missing scorer or a goalie or starting pitcher change, and a slower expected pace. When it rises, it is the reverse.
Sports differ. In football, wind and cold can move a total, and totals have their own numbers that games land on, so crossing one matters more than the size of the step. In basketball, pace and a missing player move it. In hockey and baseball the numbers are small, so half a goal or half a run is a large move.
Ask what changed, whether the over and under prices moved too, and whether other books agree. A total that fell three points tells you the market expects fewer points. It does not tell you the under wins, and a total that moved with the weather can still be beaten by a game that ignores it. Over and under both lose a share of the time, and both go in the record the same way. For information only, not betting advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
Common causes are weather, injuries to key scorers or goalies or pitchers, and changes in expected pace. Money from bettors can also move it.
No. It means the market now expects fewer points. The new price already includes that. The under wins only if the game actually finishes below the number.
Those sports score in small numbers, so half a goal or half a run is a large share of the expected total.