LOADING
Vinny · The book
“One second. Counting the house money.”
“One second. Counting the house money.”
At kickoff the pregame line stops being traded. That last number becomes the yardstick.
At kickoff the pregame line stops being traded and the last pregame number becomes the benchmark. It is usually the market's best pregame estimate, which is why closing line value is measured against it. Everything after kickoff is a live line, which is a different number.
The line never stops, friend. Eleven on Saturday night, noon on Sunday, the second quarter, it is all the same number because I say so. A frozen line? What is this, a freezer aisle?
There is no benchmark. There is only what I am showing you right now, and what I am showing you right now is always the right price.
I looked up the line at kickoff on a game I had lost. My number was better than the close, and I felt proud for about ten seconds.
Then I looked at the games I had won. Half of them were worse than the close. I had been checking only the ones I wanted to feel good about. The close does not care what I want.
When the game starts, the book takes the pregame number down and prices the game on every play. The last pregame number is the closing line. It has no play-by-play in it, and it has had the most time to absorb news and money, so it is usually the market's best pregame estimate.
That makes it a yardstick. Closing line value compares the price you took with that last number. A price better than the close over a large sample is a good sign about how you shop for prices. It is not a promise about any single bet, and a bet that beat the close can still lose.
Use the same yardstick on every bet, wins and losses alike. Checking the close only on the games you liked is the mistake. A live line after kickoff is a different number and is not the close. For information only, not betting advice. 21+. 1-800-GAMBLER.
It is the last pregame number before the game starts. It is usually the market's most informed pregame estimate, so it is the standard for judging the price you took.
No. After kickoff the book reprices the game on every play, so a live line is a different market with the score and the clock in it.
No. It means you got a better price than the market's last pregame estimate. Over a large sample that is a good sign. On one bet, the result can still go either way.